From: STeve Andre' (andres_at_msu.edu)
Date: Wed Feb 07 2001 - 23:50:52 EST
There are two things to think about here, when trying to figure out ram
prices for later on:
The first is the global issue of what the ram and general IC market is, which
very much determines the price of chips. Right now, prices are at an all
time low. Given the economic cool-down, the price for IC's looks pretty
good right now from an end users point of view. But the ram market is
fickle, and issues (BS issues that don't really mean anything) like a shortage
of glue can send IC's skyrocketing upwards overnight. Remember, ram
is the only computer component which has a real shortage of makers,
unlike anything else. Ram is like lobster. Get yours now because there
is a feast for consumers currently with no guarantee of seconds.
The second issue is focused on the chip technologies themselves and how
popular they are. Right now the companies are making hordes and bunches
of 128M modules; 32M modules aren't being asked for, and in fact the
price on 16SODIMMS has gone higher than 32M. Given that 256M parts are
harder to make and aren't being made in anywhere near the quantity of the
128M parts, the price is really high. So too is EDO ram, even though the
prices would be a fraction of what they are now if they were more popular
(right now 32M EDO ram is about as much as 128M of modern ram).
So the question is, what will 256M modules be like pricewise in 6-12 months.
The best guess I have gotten from IC people who I talk to for gossip is that
256M prices will fall some but not a lot this year, with smaller parts climbing
up a little over that time frame, PROVIDING the economic cool-down doesn't
turn into a real recession. If that happens, we'll see short term slumps in
things, and the bankruptcy of some semi-conductor manufacturers, which
will be bad news once the economy starts heating up again, because then
we'll see shortages in stuff owing to the decrease in makers. So in other
words, don't hope for ram prices to drop much more--I'd rather have stable
prices in ram rather than a dip and then spike later on.
All this is a little akin to the arcane art of reading tea leaves, and the
folks
I've talked to have been spectacularly wrong in the past, but they've also
correctly predicted some shortages as well. It's like the stock market.
--STeve Andre'
> >Since it only has room for one, I'm thinking of buying a 256 Mb SDRAM for
> >my newly ordered TP570E. It's just that prices are so excrutiatingly high
> >(eg. Crucial: $34 for 64 Mb, $66 for 128 Mb and $288 for 256 Mb). What are
> >the chances in your educated opinion of prices for the 256 Mb SDRAM coming
> >down significantly during the next 6-12 months? Are there better deals to
> >be had on those than Crucial?
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